After starting off slow, China’s EV industry has reorganized itself in record time, going from a global laggard to a global leader in about 5 years – showing other countries how it ought to be done.
In 2020, China was still early in its EV transition, lagging behind many other countries and regions. With EVs only consisting of 5.4% of the country’s car market, it lagged behind California and almost all of Europe – even the slower-adopting countries, like Romania. It was only barely ahead of the 4.6% global average that year.
It set a relatively unambitious goal of 50% EV sales by 2035 – and those 50% didn’t even need to be gasoline-free, they could be hybrids or plug-in hybrids which still have a gas engine inside (what China classifies as “New Energy Vehicles” or NEVs). Around that time, both California and Europe were thinking about banning gas car sales by 2035 – and each of those targets probably could have been earlier, too.
Now, with 2025 coming in just a week, China is likely to hit that 2035 target ten years early – closer to the year that it set the target than the year that the target was set for. It even moved its target forward to 45% NEVs by 2027 this January… and exceeded that target within less than a year.
It’s an indication of how much China is able to do when they put their minds to it – and how other countries have completely failed to keep up due to bickering and resistance from companies or governments being hostile to better technology.
The rapid rise in Chinese EVs
2020 was a turning point for the Chinese EV industry. China responded strongly to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (and as a result, had a lower death rate than almost any country, despite life within China being relatively normal after initial lockdowns), which meant a large drop in vehicle sales in the country (much like the rest of the world).
But when sales recovered, China’s eyes had turned inwards. Not only had domestic EV makers started to ramp up production rates and quality (after a decade of smart industrial policy focusing on mineral supply and encouraging domestic manufacturers), but the rest of the world had spent years blaming China for all sorts of ills (like carbon emissions, which China was criticized for not doing enough about, and now is criticized for doing too much). Technology blockades and discussions about tariffs led to consumer nationalism, with Chinese consumers expressing interest in domestic goods more than they had before.
This, coupled with new emissions rules that the rest of the world’s automakers hadn’t prepared properly for (despite having 7 years notice) led to a glut in gas car supply – mostly from foreign brands – which we called the “canary in the coal mine” for where the global ICE car market was going.
Chinese auto dealers could have responded to this by asking the government to reverse the rules, but instead they asked for (and were granted) a six month amnesty in order to clear unsold cars off of their lots, and otherwise demanded that auto manufacturers shape up and build EVs faster.
As a result of this mentality, China became the top global exporter of automobiles this year – a title that Japan had for decades.
Meanwhile, the West drags its feet
It’s a stark difference to how automakers and governments usually behave in the West (and in Japan), working to slow down transitions and add protectionist measures instead of gearing up for an inevitable change in the industry that already started.
And the regressive portions of Western governments are all too happy to oblige, with for example the US republicans promising to hold the US auto industry back even further, ensuring it isn’t ready for the present, and their far-right ilk in European governments arguing for similar measures.
President Biden’s administration did do its part to try to turn US industrial policy around to be ready for EVs with the excellent Inflation Reduction Act, which brought hundreds of billions in investment and hundreds of thousands of EV jobs to the US. Biden’s EPA and DOT also improved several emissions rules (despite softening them somewhat after industry pressure) to move the industry forward. But it also implemented large tariffs, which could help to breed complacency.
But unfortunately for America, the next occupant of the White House is convicted felon Donald Trump, who finally received more votes than his opponent on his third attempt (despite committing treason in 2021, for which there is a clear legal remedy), with less than half of the country voting to ensure that US manufacturing fall further behind.
In his last stint squatting in the White House, the EPA knowingly worked against clean air and instead of preparing the US to lead the EV transition, it focused on petty losing squabbles with states that are actually trying to move the US forward. We could have had smarter industrial policy, like China, but instead government worked to shatter the regulatory certainty that President Obama had helped to lay out.
Luckily, most Western auto manufacturers may have learned their lessons, and this time they’re finally asking government not to blow up emissions rules. They recently donated money to the famous narcissist, presumably hoping to get in his ear – we’ll have to wait and see whether what they say is actually geared towards the future (and whether the ignoramus they’re saying it to is even able to comprehend it). Though that could all be for naught, because one of Mr. Trump’s closest allies is Elon Musk, CEO of the largest EV maker in the US, who has confusingly focused his advocacy on harming EVs.
Change is coming faster than you think
China’s rapid rise in EV sales, meeting targets well ahead of schedule, may seem anomalous at first blush. It’s not often that a target gets met in one third of the time allotted for it, especially when you’re dealing with a country of 1.5 billion people. That’s a lot of inertia to turn around.
But there are other examples of targets getting met and exceeded early, and companies and governments need to be aware of these and maintain flexibility instead of fighting in the face of positive change.
Norway is one example, where the country was already far ahead of the international community, and set a target to end gas car sales by 2025. While there are still a trickle of non-EVs sold in the country, Norway’s market was already over 90% electrified in 2021.
This is not uncommon with technology adoption curves, as once a technology reaches a critical mass, most consumers consider it the default and will switch to it without much issue. That critical mass has already been met in most Northern European countries and in China, but other places could get there fast.
Once they do, who do you think will come out for the better – the countries and companies whose manufacturing base is ready to supply products that fuel that change, or the ones that have spent decades bickering and trying to slow it down so they can continue spewing poison in all of our lungs?
And as I’ve ended several articles in recent years: we should have been doing more earlier, but as the famous (possibly Chinese) proverb says, “the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the second best time is today.”
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