Chancellor comfortable with recession if it brings down inflation

UK

Jeremy Hunt has told Sky News he is comfortable with Britain being plunged into recession if that’s what it takes to bring down inflation.

The chancellor said that he would fully support the Bank of England raising interest rates higher, potentially towards 5.5%, as it battled higher-than-expected prices.

Asked by Sky News whether he was “comfortable with the Bank of England doing whatever it takes to bring down inflation, even if that potentially would precipitate a recession”, he said: “Yes, because in the end, inflation is a source of instability.

“And if we want to have prosperity, to grow the economy, to reduce the risk of recession, we have to support the Bank of England in the difficult decisions that they take.

“I have to do something else, which is to make sure the decisions that I take as chancellor, very difficult decisions, to balance the books so that the markets, the world can see that Britain is a country that pays its way – all these things mean that monetary policy at the Bank of England (and) fiscal policy by the chancellor are aligned.”

The comments came after market expectations for the eventual peak of UK interest rates leapt dramatically, following higher-than-expected CPI inflation data this week.

While the anticipated peak for UK rates was a little above 4.75% last week, it lurched higher, to 5.5%, following Wednesday’s statistics. Save for the gyrations after the mini-budget last autumn, it was the biggest shift in interest rate expectations since 2008.

More on Bank Of England

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What does core inflation mean for consumers?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledged in January that he would halve inflation this year, which in practice means bringing it down to just above 5% by the end of 2023. The Bank of England’s forecasts earlier this week suggested he would narrowly succeed.

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However, since the latest inflation data is significantly higher than the Bank’s forecast trajectory, the pledge may be missed.

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IMF: Cost of living crisis to continue

But the prime minister also pledged to grow the economy. And while the International Monetary Fund said this week that the UK would avoid recession, economists believe it’s now plausible, given those higher interest rate expectations, that Britain instead sees gross domestic product contract for two quarters – the technical definition of a recession.

Mr Hunt added: “When the prime minister announced that it was his objective to halve inflation in January, there were some people who derided that, they said: ‘well it’s automatic, inflation is going to come down anyhow’.

“There’s nothing automatic about bringing down inflation, it is a big task, but we must deliver it and we will.

“It is not a trade-off between tackling inflation and recession. In the end, the only path to sustainable growth is to bring down inflation.”

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